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How Accurate was the California Online Poker Survey
Sunday June 25,2016 : HOW ACCURATE WAS THE CALIFORNIA ONLINE POKER LEGALISATION SURVEY? (Update)
Doubts cast on study that purported to show Californians dont want legalised online poker.
The online publication Flushdraw took a closer look at the recently released Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (FM3) poll, which purported to show that Californians are not in favour of legalised online poker, and expressed reservations over the accuracy of the findings.
InfoPowa readers will recall that the FM3 study was commissioned by the anti-legalisation tribal alliance led by the Pechanga and Agua Caliente tribes, which have for years managed to derail repeated attempts to legislate online poker into the California law books.
The survey results were released as another legalisation attempt made its way through the state legislature and were clearly intended to influence lawmakers considering the latest proposals.
Flushdraw suspects that the results of the survey may have been skewed by an "oversample" taken in a specific area and added to the original findings, and quotes directly from the FM3 summary:
“FM3 conducted a telephone survey of a random sample of 855 likely November 2016 voters in California over a five-day period, June 2-6, 2016, and an oversample of 350 Central Valley voters for a total sample of 1,205. The survey interview took 21.7 minutes on average to complete. The questionnaire was translated into Spanish.”
The publication alleges that oversamples are most commonly used by polling companies to expand a survey response by overlaying the original study with a slew of respondents who are more likely to give the opinions the poll seeks to confirm.
It points out that the additional 350 oversample was derived from California’s Central Valley, where a member of the Pechanga coalition happens to have a land casino.
In addition, it appears that the oversample may have been tainted by a reference in the statements to respondents to a well-worn anti-online poker legalisation statement of questionable accuracy from local Senator Dianne Feinstein.
61 percent of California voters were more inclined to oppose online poker legislation when they heard the statement suggested by pollsters:
“U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein strongly opposes legislation authorizing online poker in California, saying the FBI has concluded that online casinos are vulnerable to a wide array of criminal schemes including money laundering by transnational organized crime groups.”
Feinsteins name will be well known to legalisation campaigners; she has consistently shown her anti-online gambling bent, supporting the Restoration of Americas Wire Act, and featuring prominently in campaigns by Coalition to Stop Internet Gambling.
Thus far, FM3 has not responded to Flushdraws criticism, but its explanation will be read with interest when it becomes available.
Betradar Launches US Sports Betting Solutions -
With only a few weeks to go until the betting and gambling world descends on ICE in London, Betradar have today announced that they will be launching a comprehensive range of tools and services to any company that will be looking to provide sports betting in a post-PASPA United States.
Final 12 For MPNPT Morocco -
Sunday on the MPN Poker Tour Morocco will see several trophies awarded at the Mazagan Beach Resort, with the largest going to the Main Event champion along with a prize of MAD 400,000 (c.€35,400).
MPNPT Morocco Updates -
Leading the 104 combined survivors from both flights is still Said El-Yousfi with 272,000 chips; visit the MPN Poker Tour blog for an end-of-day recap and full chip counts.
MPN Poker Tour Morocco Day 1A -
The MPN Poker Tour has returned to Morocco this week (January 11-14), featuring the MAD 1.5 million guaranteed Main Event, accompanying side events, and the activities and parties for which this tour has now become known on two continents.
2018 MPN Poker Classic -
The MPN announces the return of The Classic tournament series this January. The series is back following its successful €350,000 guaranteed debut in 2017. This time €500,000 is guaranteed, along with a once in a lifetime trip to Monaco for the Classic Champion.
PDC and Sportradar Renew Deal -
Following this month’s hugely successful World Championship, the Professional Darts Corporation (PDC) and long-standing partners Sportradar have renewed their multi-faceted cooperation that will see the leader in sports data and content continuing in their role as official data
Poker Yaar Joins MPN -
Available through download, instant play and mobile, Pokeryaar.com is live with Omaha, Hold’em and Five-Card poker variants, alongside MPN’s Fish Party, the industry’s only progressive jackpot SNGs.
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